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Approacging a Possible Turning Pint.

Is The EUR/USD now Approaching a Possible Turning Point?
After a lackluster session, the major U.S stock indices yesterday’s trading day in negative territory. Even though Monday’s impressive session had a positive effect on the start of yesterday’s trading day, economic data showed a mixed picture, putting a halt on the rally. The S&P500 finished the day with a mild loss of -0.22%, while the Nasdaq dropped by 0.31%
Economic data has an impact on the session, sending mixed signals. On one hand, the S&P/CS Home Price Indices Composite, showed that the housing sector in the U.S is slowly improving, as it came out at -13.50%, compared to a consensus -14.50%. On the other hand, CB consumer confidence showed a disappointing result, coming out below expectations, at 53.1.
The major mover of the day was CIT Group Inc, increasing by 31.74%. The move came as news headlines reported that the company is planning a unique plan that would eliminate more than 40% of its debt. According to Reuters, the plan will offer bondholders new debt secured by CIT assets, preventing their investments from getting wiped out.
The stock jumped throughout the session, on high volume, breaking resistance of $1.86.

It was another positive day for stocks and commodities yesterday as the major indices climbed higher for the second day of this trading week. Volume surprised investors as the S&P500 index, among other major indices, were driven higher on increasing demand.
Even though recent news regarding Dubai world continued to weigh on sentiment, it was brushed aside as headlines showed that their debt is much lower than previously expected. According to Bloomberg news the current debt will stand on $26 billion, compared to previous rumors of $60 billion.
Economic data also had an effect on the session as deteriorating sectors suddenly showed signs of life. Although the major mover of the day, )ISM Manufacturing Index(, showed a weaker result, coming out at 53.60, compared to a 54.80 figure, pending home sales and construction spending beat economist’s expectations. The housing sector showed that NAR’s Pending Home Sales increased by 3.70%, compared to an expected -0.5%. Even though the number was lower than the previous result, it helped to boost the intraday session.
On the Amex, all of the 9 major sectors presented a positive session, with materials and utilities leading the way higher. Unlike Monday’s session, the financial sector was the lager of the day closing with a mild gain of 0.07%. The broader market closed with a gain of 1.21%, while the Dow Jones finished with a 1.37% profit.

Last week, the NZD/USD fell 526 pips from its high of .7521 down to a low of .6995. We had not see that level since the end of October. However, this steep sell off from the .7500 high seems to hit a major road block near the .7000 area.Dollar Bulls may be in for a surprise as this pair continues to defy gravity and the bearish sentiment.
A Hammer candlestick pattern punctuated the end of the decline last week and is setting up a good long entry in the direction of the daily trend. Kiwi dollar is still trading above its 200 SMA and has bounced from an area of support in the .7000 area. Stochastics is hooking up just above the 20 reference line. Price may try once again to retest this area before moving higher.
Stops can be placed 2 pips below the November 27th low at .6993 with a take profit point set at .7442

The Euro is showing strength in early European session and, after bouncing from 1.4975 ahead of the European session opening, to bounce up breaking above 1.5040 session high and reaching levels around 1.5070 at the moment of writing.Next resistance levels, at this point, lie at at 1.5085 (Nov 30 high) and above here, 1.5100 and 1.5140/45 Nov 26/25 high). On the downside, below 1.5040, support levels lie at at 1.4970 (session low), and below here, 1.4920/25 and 1.4870.According to Nicole Elliott, senior technical analyst at Mizuho Corporate Bank, the Euro could re-test year highs over next sessions: "We see this as a potential interim low might be in place and we shall now re-test this year’s high at 1.5145. Record futures volume on Friday adds weight to this view."

The doller relinquished

The dollar relinquished its previous session’s strength against the majors, falling toward the 1.4850-level against the euro and the 1.6602-handle versus the British pound. The US equity bourses rebounded with the Dow Jones advancing by 1.65%, the S&P 500 advancing by 1.84% and the Nasdaq up by nearly 1.7% by the afternoon session. Crude oil also climbed back above the $80-per barrel mark. Optimism over the outlook for the US economy was reinforced by reports released earlier in the morning – prompting traders to jump back into riskier assets and sending the euro higher. The advanced reading of Q3 GDP sharply reversed the previous quarter’s decline of 0.7% and beat consensus estimates for an increase of 3.3%, instead surging by 3.5%. The advanced Q3 sales component of GDP advanced by 2.5%, compared with 0.7% from Q2 while the headline PCE index increased by 2.8% from 1.4% previously. Weekly jobless claims fell by less than expected, marginally lower to 530k from 531k a week earlier.The calendar for Friday consists of September personal income, personal consumption, PCE, core PCE, NAPM, Chicago PMI and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey. Following the disappointing Conference Board’s consumer confidence earlier this week, traders will focus on the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey, expected to decline to 70.0 in October from 73.5 a month earlier. The expectations component is forecasted to decline to 69.0 from 73.5, while the current conditions index is seen slipping to 72.1 from 73.4.

The psychologically key

The dollar sold off sharply across the board in the Wednesday session despite a dearth of US economic data earlier in the morning. The greenback plunged to a fresh 14-month low against the euro past the psychologically key 1.50-level to 1.5040, a new 15-month low versus the Swiss franc at 1.0038 and 14-month low against the Australian dollar at 0.9326. A shift into riskier assets continues to be detrimental for the US dollars as traders price in improving conditions in the global economy. Crude oil prices climbed higher today, rallying above the $81 per barrel level by afternoon trading.The Fed’s Beige Book provided an optimistic assessment of the US economy, saying conditions have stabilized or improved modestly in many sectors since its last report. The Fed said that reports of gains in economic activity outnumber the declines, though the improvements are small and scattered. However, it tempered its assessment by saying adding that labor markets are typically characterized as weak or mixed, albeit with pockets of improvement. The economic calendar for Thursday will see weekly jobless claims, August home prices and the September leading economic indicators index. Weekly jobless claims are estimated to edge up slightly to 515k from 514k in the previous week. Meanwhile, the leading economic indicators index is forecasted to improve to 0.80% from 0.60% in August.