Sunday, November 29, 2009

The doller relinquished

The dollar relinquished its previous session’s strength against the majors, falling toward the 1.4850-level against the euro and the 1.6602-handle versus the British pound. The US equity bourses rebounded with the Dow Jones advancing by 1.65%, the S&P 500 advancing by 1.84% and the Nasdaq up by nearly 1.7% by the afternoon session. Crude oil also climbed back above the $80-per barrel mark. Optimism over the outlook for the US economy was reinforced by reports released earlier in the morning – prompting traders to jump back into riskier assets and sending the euro higher. The advanced reading of Q3 GDP sharply reversed the previous quarter’s decline of 0.7% and beat consensus estimates for an increase of 3.3%, instead surging by 3.5%. The advanced Q3 sales component of GDP advanced by 2.5%, compared with 0.7% from Q2 while the headline PCE index increased by 2.8% from 1.4% previously. Weekly jobless claims fell by less than expected, marginally lower to 530k from 531k a week earlier.The calendar for Friday consists of September personal income, personal consumption, PCE, core PCE, NAPM, Chicago PMI and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey. Following the disappointing Conference Board’s consumer confidence earlier this week, traders will focus on the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey, expected to decline to 70.0 in October from 73.5 a month earlier. The expectations component is forecasted to decline to 69.0 from 73.5, while the current conditions index is seen slipping to 72.1 from 73.4.

The psychologically key


The dollar sold off sharply across the board in the Wednesday session despite a dearth of US economic data earlier in the morning. The greenback plunged to a fresh 14-month low against the euro past the psychologically key 1.50-level to 1.5040, a new 15-month low versus the Swiss franc at 1.0038 and 14-month low against the Australian dollar at 0.9326. A shift into riskier assets continues to be detrimental for the US dollars as traders price in improving conditions in the global economy. Crude oil prices climbed higher today, rallying above the $81 per barrel level by afternoon trading.The Fed’s Beige Book provided an optimistic assessment of the US economy, saying conditions have stabilized or improved modestly in many sectors since its last report. The Fed said that reports of gains in economic activity outnumber the declines, though the improvements are small and scattered. However, it tempered its assessment by saying adding that labor markets are typically characterized as weak or mixed, albeit with pockets of improvement. The economic calendar for Thursday will see weekly jobless claims, August home prices and the September leading economic indicators index. Weekly jobless claims are estimated to edge up slightly to 515k from 514k in the previous week. Meanwhile, the leading economic indicators index is forecasted to improve to 0.80% from 0.60% in August.
The dollar relinquished its previous session’s strength against the majors, falling toward the 1.4850-level against the euro and the 1.6602-handle versus the British pound. The US equity bourses rebounded with the Dow Jones advancing by 1.65%, the S&P 500 advancing by 1.84% and the Nasdaq up by nearly 1.7% by the afternoon session. Crude oil also climbed back above the $80-per barrel mark. Optimism over the outlook for the US economy was reinforced by reports released earlier in the morning – prompting traders to jump back into riskier assets and sending the euro higher. The advanced reading of Q3 GDP sharply reversed the previous quarter’s decline of 0.7% and beat consensus estimates for an increase of 3.3%, instead surging by 3.5%. The advanced Q3 sales component of GDP advanced by 2.5%, compared with 0.7% from Q2 while the headline PCE index increased by 2.8% from 1.4% previously. Weekly jobless claims fell by less than expected, marginally lower to 530k from 531k a week earlier.The calendar for Friday consists of September personal income, personal consumption, PCE, core PCE, NAPM, Chicago PMI and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey. Following the disappointing Conference Board’s consumer confidence earlier this week, traders will focus on the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey, expected to decline to 70.0 in October from 73.5 a month earlier. The expectations component is forecasted to decline to 69.0 from 73.5, while the current conditions index is seen slipping to 72.1 from 73.4.

The doller relinqished

The dollar relinquished its previous session’s strength against the majors, falling toward the 1.4850-level against the euro and the 1.6602-handle versus the British pound. The US equity bourses rebounded with the Dow Jones advancing by 1.65%, the S&P 500 advancing by 1.84% and the Nasdaq up by nearly 1.7% by the afternoon session. Crude oil also climbed back above the $80-per barrel mark. Optimism over the outlook for the US economy was reinforced by reports released earlier in the morning – prompting traders to jump back into riskier assets and sending the euro higher. The advanced reading of Q3 GDP sharply reversed the previous quarter’s decline of 0.7% and beat consensus estimates for an increase of 3.3%, instead surging by 3.5%. The advanced Q3 sales component of GDP advanced by 2.5%, compared with 0.7% from Q2 while the headline PCE index increased by 2.8% from 1.4% previously. Weekly jobless claims fell by less than expected, marginally lower to 530k from 531k a week earlier.The calendar for Friday consists of September personal income, personal consumption, PCE, core PCE, NAPM, Chicago PMI and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey. Following the disappointing Conference Board’s consumer confidence earlier this week, traders will focus on the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey, expected to decline to 70.0 in October from 73.5 a month earlier. The expectations component is forecasted to decline to 69.0 from 73.5, while the current conditions index is seen slipping to 72.1 from 73.4.

The doller relinqished

The dollar relinquished its previous session’s strength against the majors, falling toward the 1.4850-level against the euro and the 1.6602-handle versus the British pound. The US equity bourses rebounded with the Dow Jones advancing by 1.65%, the S&P 500 advancing by 1.84% and the Nasdaq up by nearly 1.7% by the afternoon session. Crude oil also climbed back above the $80-per barrel mark. Optimism over the outlook for the US economy was reinforced by reports released earlier in the morning – prompting traders to jump back into riskier assets and sending the euro higher. The advanced reading of Q3 GDP sharply reversed the previous quarter’s decline of 0.7% and beat consensus estimates for an increase of 3.3%, instead surging by 3.5%. The advanced Q3 sales component of GDP advanced by 2.5%, compared with 0.7% from Q2 while the headline PCE index increased by 2.8% from 1.4% previously. Weekly jobless claims fell by less than expected, marginally lower to 530k from 531k a week earlier.The calendar for Friday consists of September personal income, personal consumption, PCE, core PCE, NAPM, Chicago PMI and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey. Following the disappointing Conference Board’s consumer confidence earlier this week, traders will focus on the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey, expected to decline to 70.0 in October from 73.5 a month earlier. The expectations component is forecasted to decline to 69.0 from 73.5, while the current conditions index is seen slipping to 72.1 from 73.4.

$1,036 per ounce and dipping below the $80 per barrel level to $79.

The dollar surged against the majors in early Tuesday trading, rallying to 1.4789 against the euro and 1.6287 versus the British pound. The catalyst for the greenback’s advance was earlier weaker-than-expected US economic data, prompting heightened risk aversion and a shift from riskier assets. Spot gold and crude oil both traded lower, easing to $1,036 per ounce and dipping below the $80 per barrel level to $79. The major US equity bourses were largely flat on the session, with the Dow Jones hovering just above the 9,900-mark. There were several key economic releases earlier in the session, including August Case-Shiller home prices, the October Conference Board’s consumer confidence survey and the October Richmond Fed manufacturing index. The Conference Board’s consumer confidence survey for October sharply missed consensus estimates for an improvement to 54.3, instead tumbling to 47.7 from 53.1 in September. The disappointing confidence indicator sent the dollar sharply higher as traders dumped riskier assets for the safe-haven play

Friday, November 27, 2009

British pound past


The dollar was mixed against the majors, climbing higher against the euro to 1.4628 but sliding versus the British pound past the 1.64-level to 1.6419. Spot gold rose to a new record high above the $1,080-mark to $1,083.50 per ounce while crude oil continued to trade beneath $80-per barrel. The US economic reports released earlier today saw September durable goods and factory orders. The headline durable goods orders increased by 1.4% in September versus 1.0% previously, while the ex-transportations figure rose by 1.2% from 0.9% in August. Meanwhile, factory orders reversed the 0.8% decline in August, increasing by 0.9%. The key highlight on Wednesday will be the ADP private sector payrolls, which are seen improving to reflect a loss of 188.0k jobs in October from 254.0k jobs a month earlier. Also due out tomorrow will be the October non-manufacturing ISM report, estimated to improve to 51.8 from 50.9 in September.